Most companies see no productivity gains from AI despite heavy investment, survey finds

AI investment booms, but impact remains elusive

A new survey of over 6,000 executives in the US and Europe reveals a stark gap between AI hype and measurable business results. Despite massive investment, most leaders report that AI has so far done little to change their operations.

The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that while 70% of businesses are actively using AI, over 80% see no impact on productivity or employment. This is happening even as AI firms captured 61% of global venture capital in 2025, totaling $258.7 billion.

Executives use AI sparingly, expect future gains

Among the executives themselves, adoption is tentative. Only one-third reported using AI at work, and that usage averaged just 1.5 hours per week. A full quarter of surveyed leaders do not use AI at all.

Yet, expectations for the future are high. The majority believe AI will boost company productivity by 1.4% and increase output by 0.8% over the next three years. They also anticipate it will reduce headcount by 0.7%.

A modern productivity paradox

The current situation echoes a historical pattern known as the Solow productivity paradox. In the 1970s and 80s, the introduction of computers initially slowed productivity growth as workers struggled with new administrative burdens.

• Productivity growth was 2.9% from 1948 to 1973.
• It fell to 1.1% after the widespread adoption of microcomputers.
• Significant improvements did not reappear until the late 1990s.

Early evidence suggests AI could create a similar lag, with some surveys indicating it might increase employee burnout instead of easing workloads.

The unwavering faith in disruption

Despite the slow start, the executive class remains fully committed to AI as a transformative force. Major tech companies are betting everything on it, with Microsoft's AI leader claiming the technology could replace all white-collar jobs within 18 months.

The contradiction between current results and future optimism proves AI is now firmly entrenched in corporate strategy. Whether it delivers the economic payoff everyone is banking on, however, is a question only time can answer.