Scientists forecast lethal scorpion hotspots with new map

Scientists can now forecast dangerous scorpion hotspots

An international research team has developed a method to identify and forecast hotspots for some of the world's most dangerous scorpion species. The approach combines field research with advanced computer modeling to predict where high-risk scorpions are most likely to live.

The findings, published in Environmental Research Communications, are intended to help health authorities target prevention and medical training in high-risk areas. The study was led by researchers from the University of Galway in collaboration with the University Ibn Zohr in Morocco.

Soil and temperature are key factors

The research revealed that soil type is the primary factor influencing where most scorpions are found. Temperature, including both average levels and seasonal variation, plays an important secondary role for certain species.

Not all scorpions respond to their environment in the same way. Some flexible species occupy large areas, while others are limited to very specific habitats, creating concentrated zones where the risk of stings is especially high.

The study focused on central Morocco, one of the world's most severe scorpion sting hotspots. The team's modeling method, however, is designed to be applied wherever scorpions pose a threat, from Brazil to the Middle East and India.

A major and overlooked global health threat

Scorpion stings are a significant public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions. More than 2 million people are stung every year, with venom from certain species capable of triggering severe illness and death.

Worldwide, scorpion stings are estimated to kill more than 3,000 children annually. A major treatment challenge is that it is often difficult for doctors to determine which scorpion delivered the sting, complicating the choice of the most effective antivenom.

"The findings could save lives," said Dr. Michel Dugon, Head of the Venom Systems Lab at University of Galway and senior author of the study. "By pinpointing where dangerous scorpions are most likely to appear, health authorities can target awareness campaigns, train frontline medical staff, and focus community prevention in high-risk areas."

How the forecasting model works

The researchers used a computer-based mapping method known as Maximum Entropy. This tool helped them predict scorpion habitats by analyzing which environmental conditions the animals favor.

By integrating globally available data on key habitat characteristics, the team demonstrated how high-risk scorpion areas can be identified beyond Morocco. This is particularly valuable in tropical regions where detailed records of species distribution are limited.

The project involved a multidisciplinary team including:

• Senior scientists and doctoral researchers from both universities
• University of Galway undergraduate zoology students who travel to Morocco annually as part of their program
• Public health specialists, clinicians, and zoologists

Real-world impact and future goals

Fouad Salhi, a doctoral researcher at the University Ibn Zohr and first author of the study, stated the research shows how biodiversity data can directly inform public health policies. "We aim to have real-world impact—supporting prevention strategies, improving medical preparedness, and ultimately contributing to the reduction of the burden of scorpion stings, both in Morocco and beyond," Salhi said.

Dr. Dugon emphasized the broader need for this work, noting, "Overall, we know very little about the ecology of scorpions, their venom and the best way to treat scorpion stings. Our international collaborative efforts aim to develop new tools for the prevention, diagnostic and treatment of scorpion stings globally."

The research is part of a larger zoological initiative at the University of Galway. Dr. Colin Lawton, Head of Zoology and a co-author, said the university is "gaining momentum as a centre of excellence in zoological research, addressing questions of global importance."